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La quattordicesima edizione congiunta delle Prospettive agricole OCSE-FAO fornisce proiezioni di mercato per i principali prodotti agricoli, biocombustibili e prodotti ittici, nonché un capitolo speciale dedicato alle prospettive e alle sfide dell’agricoltura e della pesca nel Medio Oriente e nell’Africa settentrionale.
I mercati mondiali dell’agricoltura sono notevolmente cambiati dopo l’impennata dei prezzi dei prodotti alimentari nel periodo 2007-2008, in quanto la produzione è cresciuta fortemente, è cresciuta fortemente, mentre la crescita della domanda ha iniziato a indebolirsi. Nel prossimo decennio i prezzi agricoli reali dovrebbero rimanere bassi a causa della ridotta crescita della domanda mondiale di prodotti alimentari e mangimi. Le esportazioni nette tenderanno ad aumentare dai Paesi e regioni con abbondanza di terre da coltivare, in particolare nelle Americhe. I Paesi con risorse naturali limitate, con una lenta espansione della produzione e una crescita demografica elevata vedranno aumentare le importazioni nette. Si prevede un aumento della dipendenza dalle importazioni in particolare per il Medio Oriente e l’Africa settentrionale, dove la scarsità di terre arabili e di risorse idriche limita la produzione agricola.
经合组织-粮农组织第十四次联合版发布的《农业展望》提供了主要农产品、生物燃料和鱼类的市场预测，以及关于中东和北非农业和渔业面临的前景与挑战的特别章节。
自2007-2008年粮食价格暴涨以来，世界农产品市场发生了显著变化，产量增长强劲，而需求增长开始疲弱。未来十年，由于全球食品和饲料需求增速放缓，预计实际农产品价格将保持低位。土地资源丰富的国家和地区，特别是美洲的净出口将增加。自然资源有限、生产扩张缓慢和人口增长率高的国家净进口将呈现增加趋势。尤其是中东和北非地区，耕地和水资源短缺将制约其农业生产，进口依赖性预计将有所上升。
统计附件中预测结果和过去的趋势可以在 http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en上查询。
补充信息可以在www.agri-outlook.org查阅。
Niniejszy cykl publikacji przedstawia wyniki kompleksowych przeglądów polityk rozwoju obszarów wiejskich w poszczególnych państwach oraz ustalenia zawarte w sprawozdaniach analitycznych poświęconych różnym aspektom polityk wobec obszarów wiejskich. Na przestrzeni ostatnich lat w Polsce nastąpił imponujący rozwój; mimo to, różnice między poszczególnymi regionami pod kątem osiąganych przez nie wyników gospodarczych i społecznych pozostają duże w świetle standardów OECD. Ogólne warunki życia w społecznościach wiejskich są zasadniczo niższe niż warunki życia w społecznościach miejskich a wiejskie gospodarstwa domowe są bardziej narażone na ubóstwo. W niniejszym badaniu przeprowadzono analizę szeregu polityk wywierających wpływ na rozwój obszarów wiejskich w Polsce. Zawarto w nim zalecenia dotyczące sposobu zwiększania wydajności rolnictwa, wspierania dywersyfikacji gospodarczej, zacieśniania współpracy między gminami oraz pogłębiania decentralizacji i usprawniania wielopoziomowego zarządzania.
Agriculture in Korea is under increasing pressure to meet changing domestic demand, improve its productivity to keep up with the country's competitive manufacturing sector, and become more competitive at the international level. To date, the government has offered extensive support to farm income via price support, direct payments, preferential tax treatment, and reduced input prices. However, a more comprehensive policy approach is required to address the low-income problem in agriculture, and a more comprehensive rural development policy is also required to create employment opportunities for the younger generation.
Korea should explore its potential to export niche agricultural products and processed food that reflect its rich and unique food culture. To unleash the sector’s potential, agricultural policy should focus on improving the productivity and sustainability of commercial enterprises and develop the food processing sector. The country's agricultural innovation system should become more integrated and collaborative, benefiting from its strong competitive advantage in Information and Communication Technology (ICT).
Recent mergers in the seed industry have led to concerns about market concentration and its potential effects on prices, product choice, and innovation. This study provides new and detailed empirical evidence on the degree of market concentration in seed and GM technology across a broad range of crops and countries, and analyses the causes and potential effects of concentration. It also explains how competition authorities have responded to mergers, and suggests policy options to help safeguard and stimulate competition and innovation in plant breeding by avoiding unnecessary regulatory barriers, by facilitating access to genetic resources and intellectual property, as well as by stimulating public and private R&D. As this study shows, policy makers have several levers besides competition policy to ensure an innovative and competitive seed industry.
This report assesses the key bottlenecks within the water-energy-land-food nexus in Korea, and proposes policy recommendations and governance arrangements to future-proof environmental integrity and enhance sustainable growth. The increasing pressure caused by urbanisation, industrialisation, population growth and climate change in Korea has led to more land consumption and augmented water supply, at the expense of the environment and at a high cost for public finance. Korea has engaged with the OECD via a national policy dialogue to explore best practices from the wider international community to better manage the nexus at the river basin scale.
This publication examines the risks associated with the release of excessive nitrogen into the environment (climate change, depletion of the ozone layer, air pollution, water pollution, loss of biodiversity, deterioration of soil quality). The report also examines the uncertainty associated with the ability of nitrogen to move from one ecosystem to another and cause "cascading effects". In addition to better management of nitrogen risks at the local level, there is a need to consider the global risks associated with the continued increase in nitrous oxide concentrations and to prevent excess nitrogen in all its forms by developing cost-effective strategies for all its sources. Other than the reduction of nitrogen pollution, this report provides guidance on the use of nitrogen policy instruments and how to ensure coherence with objectives such as food security, energy security and environmental objectives.
En la decimocuarta edición conjunta de OCDE-FAO Perspectivas Agrícolas se presentan proyecciones de mercado para los principales productos básicos agrícolas, los biocombustibles y el pescado. Asimismo, se incluye una sección especial sobre las perspectivas y los retos planteados por la agricultura y la pesca en la región de Oriente Medio y África del Norte.
Los mercados agrícolas mundiales han cambiado notoriamente desde las pronunciadas alzas de los precios en los años 2007-2008, pues la producción aumentó en gran medida, en tanto que el crecimiento de la demanda comenzó a debilitarse. Se espera que en la próxima década los precios reales de los productos agrícolas permanezcan bajos como resultado del menor crecimiento de la demanda mundial de alimentos y forraje. Las exportaciones netas tenderán a aumentar, provenientes de países y regiones con abundancia de tierras, en particular en América. En los países con recursos naturales limitados, lento aumento de la producción y alto crecimiento demográfico, las importaciones netas aumentarán. Se prevé una creciente dependencia de las importaciones, sobre todo en la región de Oriente Medio y África del Norte, en la que la escasez de tierra cultivable y de agua limita la producción agrícola.
En http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-data-en puede consultarse con mayor detalle las proyecciones y tendencias pasadas presentadas en el anexo estadístico.
En www.agri-outlook.org se proporciona información complementaria.
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a large and growing problem with the potential for enormous health and economic consequences, globally. As such, AMR has become a central issue at the top of the public health agenda of OECD countries and beyond. In this report, OECD used advanced techniques, including machine learning, ensemble modelling and a microsimulation model, to provide support for policy action in the human health sector. AMR rates are high and are projected to grow further, particularly for second- and third-line antibiotics, and if no effective action is taken this is forecasted to produce a significant health and economic burden in OECD and EU28 countries. This burden can be addressed by implementing effective public health initiatives. This report reviews policies currently in place in high-income countries and identifies a set of ‘best buys’ to tackle AMR that, if scaled up at the national level, would provide an affordable and cost-effective instrument in the fight against AMR.
This report, prepared by FAO and the OECD with inputs from IFPRI, IFAD, the World Bank and WTO, has been submitted to the G20 Presidency of the Argentine Republic in response to the Presidency’s request for information on future trends and challenges faced by global agriculture, with a special focus on the role of soils in promoting food security and the measures that could be undertaken to facilitate sustainable soil management.
This report examines how public stockholding policies related to rice in Asia can influence domestic and international markets. Following a review of the working of rice public stockholding programmes in eight Asian countries (Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, the Philippines and Thailand), the report examines the impacts of these programmes over the medium term (2018-2030) and analyses how these impacts would change should the selected countries collectively set their public stocks to either a low or high level. Results show that the strongest impacts would occur during the three-year transition period when countries adjust their public stocks to the new levels, but that there would also be structural impacts over the medium term, although at a lower intensity, on procurement, domestic and international prices, availability, private stock levels, and public expenditure. In the event of a global production shock, the model projects that the immediate impact on prices and availability would be less severe under the high public stock scenario, but that recovery would be faster and public expenditure lower when countries hold smaller public stocks.
The expansion of agricultural production in China has been remarkable, but at the expense of the sustainable use of its natural resources. To counter this, as well as to face problems due to rising labour costs and a rapidly ageing rural population, agricultural production must concentrate on a smaller number of more productive farms. It is in this light that this report reviews recent policy developments to assess whether they have been conducive to productivity growth and environmental sustainability. It finds that the conditions for structural change and innovation at the farm level in China could be further improved by securing the long-term stability of land rights as well as reducing transaction costs. Greater policy coherence with agri-environmental policy objectives could also be achieved through stricter enforcement of environmental regulations. Finally, the agricultural innovation system could play a greater role by placing the focus on public agricultural R&D in areas such as the environment and resource conservation, and in other areas which do not attract much private sector investment.
Ce rapport est le 31e de la série de rapports qui suivent et évaluent l’évolution des politiques agricoles à travers différents pays, et le 6e qui inclut à la fois tous les 35 pays de l’OCDE, les six états de l’Union européenne qui ne sont pas membres de l’OCDE, et un certain nombre d’économies émergentes : Afrique du Sud, Brésil, République populaire de Chine, Colombie, Costa Rica, Kazakhstan, les Philippines, Fédération de Russie, Ukraine et Viet Nam. Ce rapport annuel est une source unique d’information sur le soutien actuel à l’agriculture et utilise un système cohérent de mesure et de classification du soutien agricole – les estimations du soutien aux producteurs et aux consommateurs (ESP et ESC), l’estimation au soutien aux services d’intérêt général (ESSG), et les indicateurs connexes. Ceux-ci offrent une bonne compréhension des politiques agricoles dont la complexité va croissant et servent de base à leur suivi et à leur évaluation. Des données plus détaillées et la documentation des calculs du soutien sont aussi disponible en ligne sur www.oecd.org/agriculture/PSE.
La version complète des chapitres par pays ainsi que l’annexe statistique, qui contient des tableaux détaillés des indicateurs de soutien à l’agriculture ne sont disponibles que sous leur forme électronique sur https://doi.org/10.1787/agr_pol-2018-fr.
The need to mainstream biodiversity into economic growth and development is being increasingly recognised and is now also firmly embedded in the Sustainable Development Goals. Drawing on experiences and insights from 16 predominantly megadiverse countries, this report examines how biodiversity is being mainstreamed in four key areas: 1) at the national level, including national development plans and other strategies, institutional co-ordination and national budgets; 2) the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors; 3) in development co-operation; and 4) the monitoring and evaluation of biodiversity mainstreaming and how this could be improved.
This report assesses the performance of agricultural and food policy in India and calculates a set of policy indicators providing a comprehensive picture of agricultural support. These indicators, developed by the OECD, are already used regularly in the analysis of the agriculture and food sector in 51 OECD countries and emerging economies and are now available for India for the first time.
Government intervention in India is found to provide both negative and positive support to agriculture, with market and trade interventions often depressing prices, while subsidies to fertilisers, water, power and other inputs incentivise their use. This reveals the inherent difficulty in attempting to secure remunerative prices and higher incomes for farmers, while at the same time keeping food prices low for consumers. The report also points to policy-induced pressures on natural resources such as water and soil. Detailed recommendations are offered which, if implemented, have the potential to improve farmers' welfare, reduce environmental damage, alleviate some of the pressure on scarce resources, better prepare the sector for climate change, improve food and nutrition security for the poor, improve domestic market functioning and position India to participate more fully in agro-food global value chains.
Cette quatorzième édition conjointe des Perspectives agricoles de l’OCDE et de la FAO présente des projections sur les principaux produits agricoles, les biocarburants et la pêche. Elle comprend un chapitre spécial sur les perspectives et les enjeux auxquels seront confrontés les secteurs agricole et halieutique dans la région Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord.
Les marchés agricoles mondiaux ont considérablement évolué depuis la flambée des prix alimentaires de 2007‑08 : la production a fortement progressé, tandis que la croissance de la demande a commencé à ralentir. Dans la décennie à venir, les prix agricoles réels devraient rester bas, du fait d’une augmentation réduite de la demande mondiale de produits destinés à l’alimentation humaine et animale. De manière générale, les exportations nettes augmenteront dans les pays et régions riches en terres, notamment dans les Amériques. Les pays dotés de ressources naturelles limitées, où l’expansion de la production est lente et dont la croissance démographique est forte connaîtront une hausse de leurs importations nettes. D’après les projections, la dépendance à l’égard des importations devrait s’accroître en particulier dans la région Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord où la rareté de l’eau et des terres arables pèse sur la production agricole.
The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.
World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.
Over the last decades, and in line with the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, cities and regions have played an important part in helping to implement global agendas at local level through their Decentralised Development Cooperation (DDC) activities. This report analyses the evolution of financial flows, emerging trends and innovative paradigms related to the development co-operation of local and regional governments, including but not limited to official development assistance extended by sub-national governments. It promotes a territorial approach to development co-operation and provides policy recommendations to maximise the effectiveness, benefits and outcomes of DDC at all levels, while acknowledging the diversity of approaches, definitions and concepts across OECD DAC countries active in DDC.
This report is the 31st in the series of OECD reports that monitor and evaluate agricultural policies across countries, and the 6th report to include all 35 OECD countries, the 6 non-OECD EU Member States and a set of emerging economies: Brazil, the People’s Republic of China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Kazakhstan, the Philippines, the Russian Federation, South Africa, Ukraine and Viet Nam. This annual report is a unique source of up-to-date estimates of support to agriculture and uses a comprehensive system of measuring and classifying support to agriculture – the Producer and Consumer Support Estimates (PSEs and CSEs), the General Services Support Estimate (GSSE) and related indicators. These estimates provide insight into the increasingly complex nature of agricultural policy and serve as a basis for OECD’s agricultural policy monitoring and evaluation. Detailed data and documentation for the calculation of support are available on line www.oecd.org/agriculture/PSE.
Comprehensive country chapters and the Statistical Annex containing detailed background tables with indicators of agricultural support are available in electronic form at the publication website http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_pol-2018-en.