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Crony capitalism and self-fulfilling expectations by international creditors are often suggested as two rival explanations for currency crisis. This paper examines a possible linkage between the two that has so far not been explored: corruption may affect a country’s composition of capital inflows in a way that makes it more likely to experience a currency crisis that is triggered/aided by international investors’ self-fulfilling expectations. Using data on bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) and bilateral bank loans, this paper finds clear evidence that corrupt countries tend to have a particular composition of capital inflows that is relatively light in FDI. Earlier studies have indicated that a country that has such a capital inflow structure is more likely to run into a subsequent currency crisis (in part through self-fulfilling expectations of the international creditors). Thus, this paper has illustrated one particular channel through which crony capitalism can increase ...
The negative interest rate policy (NIRP) has been in place in the euro area since June 2014. While the NIRP can provide additional monetary accommodation in the situation where the neutral rate of interest is most likely negative, there are also unintended consequences for banks’ profitability and potential financial stability risks associated with this policy. The paper assesses the effect of the NIRP on the net interest rate margins of the euro area banks using quarterly consolidated bank level data for some 50 banking groups directly supervised by the Single Supervisory Mechanism. Since our data set extends to 2018, it allows us to examine the period of negative short-term interest rates separately from the period of low, but positive policy rates. The econometric results confirm the effect of the interest rate level on bank profitability and, in some specifications, also suggest an additional negative effect on bank profitability in the period of negative euro area short-term interest rates. This additional effect of the NIRP is the strongest when looking at the disaggregated components of net interest income, i.e. interest income and interest expense. However, the effects are not particularly robust across various profitability measures and tend to disappear when conditioning on macroeconomic variables, such as expected real GDP growth and inflation expectations. Therefore, in line with other existing studies, we find weak evidence of possible negative effects on bank profitability from keeping rates low for an extended period of time. Statistical analysis of the bank-level data also points to an ongoing compression of non-interest income, in particular for the best performing banks, and a slow recovery in return on total assets among all banks over the analysed period.
This Working Paper relates to the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of Euro Area
(https://www.oecd.org/economy/euro-area-and-european-union-economic-snapshot/)
The OECD Social Expenditure data base (SOCX) allows the monitoring of trends in aggregate social expenditure and changes in its composition. But aggregate social expenditure may sometimes fail to reflect the true ‘effort’ of a country in providing social support. Account needs to be taken of the effects of tax systems and transfers which, although mandatory, are not paid by government.
In order to get from a “gross” to a “net” concept of social expenditure various adjustments to raw data are needed. These adjustments concern: methods of benefit payment (“net” or “gross” of tax); the varying extent with which governments use fiscal instruments rather than cash transfers to pursue social policy goals; and the different degree to which government requires other economic agents to provide social expenditures. The analysis also addresses the automatic budget effects related to the stage of the economic cycle.
This analysis is a first attempt to capture in a comprehensive manner the effect ...
This document is the 2nd edition of the Net Social Expenditure paper published in 1999 (Adema, 1999). It contains an overview of net (after tax) public and private social expenditure indicators. These indicators have been developed to supplement available historical information on gross social expenditure trends by accounting for the varying impact of the tax system across countries. Tax systems can affect social spending in three ways:
- Governments levy direct taxes and social security contributions on cash transfers.
- Governments levy indirect taxes on goods and services bought by benefit recipients.
- Governments may award tax advantages similar to cash benefits and/or grant tax concessions aiming to stimulate the provision of private social benefits.
The document summarises the methodological framework as previously developed, but extends coverage to eighteen countries for which information for 1997 is now available: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech ...
This paper contains an overview of net total (public and private) social expenditure indicators. These indicators have been developed to supplement available historical information on gross social expenditure trends by accounting for the varying impact of the tax system across countries. Tax systems can affect social spending in three ways:
- Governments levy direct taxes and social security contributions on cash transfers.
- Governments levy indirect taxes on goods and services bought by benefit recipients. And,
- Governments may award tax advantages similar to cash benefits and/or grant tax concessions aiming to stimulate purchase of insurance coverage by private agents.
The paper summarises the methodological framework as previously developed, but extends coverage to thirteen countries for which information for 1993 and/or 1995 is now available: Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom ...
Building on an approach pioneered in the OECD’s Taxing Energy Use for Sustainable Development report, this paper develops a methodology to estimate effective carbon rates net of pre-tax fossil fuel support: the Net Effective Carbon Rates (Net ECR). This exercise is made possible by combining the two OECD databases: the Taxing Energy Use and Effective Carbon Rates database (the backbone of the newly established OECD series on Carbon Pricing and Energy Taxation) and the Inventory of Support Measures for Fossil Fuels.
The paper then explores potential use cases of this new indicator. In particular, it explains how the Net ECR can be used to calculate fossil fuel support (FFS) against external carbon pricing benchmarks and why such an approach facilitates comparisons of FFS across countries and over time. The paper’s conclusions include avenues for future research.
Global trade imbalances narrowed in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. They have remained at a lower level but are still of concern to policy makers because of the risks they pose to individual economies, as well as globally. However, the ultimate causes of these imbalances are not fully clear. Current account positions reflect the gap between national saving and investment, which are in turn affected by policy distortions, including in trade policy. Simulations of the OECD’s METRO model show liberalisation of existing trade distortions would modestly narrow aggregate trade imbalances in the medium term for some countries. Reducing tariffs, non-tariff measures and the combined market access and productivity-enhancing effects of pro-competitive measures in services all have some rebalancing potential. Liberalisation would also offer economically significant income gains for all countries. By contrast, narrowing trade imbalances using trade restrictions would come at disproportionately high economic costs for all countries.
This working paper examines the role of networks and rural-urban linkages to absorb and enhance innovation in rural regions, placing a special focus on the distinctive characteristics of rural areas that drive the different ways they adopt and diffuse innovation. After a review of the literature on innovation and innovation adoption through networks and linkages for rural areas, three enablers of innovation absorption and diffusion through networks and linkages are discussed: place-based networks focusing on digital infrastructure; linkages between people via migration flows; and firm-based networks including university-industry linkages, international trade and foreign ownership, and clusters. It also provides some policy-takeaways.
Diversity in the classroom includes differences in the way students’ brains learn, or neurodiversity. Neurodevelopmental disorders such as autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and attention deficit hyperactive disorder (ADHD) affect increasingly large numbers of students. Education systems must work to meet the needs of these students and ensure that all types of learners thrive at school and beyond.
Large-scale research and development programmes in neuroscience are giving rise to a host of new approaches, techniques and capacities to understand, read and intervene in the human brain. Some of these technologies reframe how we understand mental health and cognition, while others promise new applications for treating disease and even enhancing human capabilities. These developments in neuroscience and associated technologies have many ethical, legal and social implications including issues of product safety, human enhancement, dual use, privacy, and human identity. There is broad agreement among stakeholders that social aspects of brain research must be examined alongside the scientific and technical ones. In fact, good ideas for achieving such integration have emerged within the field of governance of emerging technology and within the national brain initiatives themselves. This report identifies, and seeks to address, key challenges for realising the responsible development of neurotechnology. In particular, the report analyses frameworks and mechanisms for integrating social concerns in the early development of technology, and discusses best practices for research funders across the public and private sector.
Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) is a policy approach that makes producers responsible for their products at the post-consumer stage of the lifecycle. It has been widely adopted by governments and companies across the OECD membership and beyond and is currently most commonly used for electronics, packaging, vehicles, and tyres. The success of EPR in increasing material recovery rates has triggered a debate about expanding the use of EPR to additional product groups. Additionally, there is a debate about expanding producer responsibilities to additional impact categories, which go beyond the traditional use of EPR to cover end-of-life costs that occur at the domestic level. This paper presents a discussion of relatively novel applications of EPR to additional product groups (plastic products beyond packaging, textiles, construction materials, and food waste) and to environmental impacts (design considerations, pollution and littering) that occur throughout the product lifecycle. Based on select case studies, this report evaluates the successes and challenges that early adopters of applying the EPR approach to new product groups or additional environmental impact categories have experienced. It reviews the arguments for further application of EPR, possible limitations and provides guidance on when and how to best apply an EPR.
Since January 2003 the Eurosystem conducts a regular quarterly bank lending survey for the euro area. It is the first regular survey that gathers information on the distinct supply-side determinants and demand-side determinants of the development in lending business for the euro area. The paper delineates the background and the institutional framework of the survey for the euro area as well as for Germany and provides aggregate survey results of the first eight survey rounds for Germany. Main tendencies as well as the contributing factors put forward by the banks surveyed are assessed on an aggregate level. In a detailed analysis, which additionally uses the information of the micro data level, we assess the factors impacting on changes in credit standards and in the demand for loans more closely and test for their significance. Apart from the relationship between different parts of the data obtained by the survey, the explanatory power of the survey data for actual loan growth and changes in credit margins is of special interest. Using the information from the bank balance sheets statistics and the new interest rate statistics of the monetary financial institutions (MFI) on the micro data level, we test whether the survey data contain significant information on banks' individual loan growth and margin changes.