Since 2010, the OECD Development Centre’s Perspectives on Global Development (PGD) series has investigated trends in developing countries and their place in the global economy. The series started by examining the increasing weight of developing countries in the world economy, a phenomenon it referred to as “shifting wealth”. In 2008, the share of non-OECD countries in world gross domestic product surpassed that of OECD member countries and many developing countries were on course to converge with advanced economies.

Discontent is rising around the world, reflecting dysfunctions and injustices that have emerged in economic, social and political systems. It is also a response to the damage humankind is inflicting on the world’s natural systems and thus, inevitably, upon itself. The COVID-19 pandemic, during which this report was written, has exposed these defects to devastating effect. As countries plan their recovery from the multiple crises triggered by the pandemic, they have an opportunity to make these systems more inclusive, more sustainable, more resilient and more responsive. This report shows this can only happen with the active participation of citizens in new forms of collective action at the local, national and international level.

Discontent has surged around the world since the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Although the COVID‑19 pandemic cleared the streets temporarily, it also exposed and exacerbated the grievances and social fractures that were driving this unrest – factors that countries will need to address as they emerge from the pandemic and confront the worsening climate crisis. This edition of Perspectives on Global Development examines the nature and causes of discontent in developing countries and identifies possible responses to the phenomenon at local, national and international levels. These responses should aim not only to improve livelihoods and strengthen social cohesion but also to empower states and societies to address collectively the profound risks and uncertainties of the 21st century.

Between the global financial crisis of 2008-09 and the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, protests and political instability surged around the world. The pandemic cleared the streets but only for a moment; civil unrest is expected to worsen in its aftermath. People’s trust in public institutions is collapsing; so too is their trust in each other. Political systems in many places are failing to meet people’s demands for change. New technologies are creating new divides within society. A vicious circle is emerging, whereby social fragmentation is impeding the collective action needed – at the local, national and global level – to address the factors behind this discontent. Given the scale of the challenges of the 21st century, this inability to co-operate poses an existential threat to humankind.

This chapter charts the evolution of the global economy during the three decades prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and examines possible links to the rise in discontent around the world. It analyses four tendencies to explain why discontent has surged despite a prolonged period of economic growth in advanced and developing economies: rising inequalities, uneven progress in broader well-being indicators, changes in production that are putting pressure on large portions of the global labour force, and the worsening environmental crisis. These phenomena underline the importance of looking beyond gross domestic product when analysing sustainable development.

This chapter examines the rise in discontent evident since the global financial crisis. It analyses protests and other forms of civil unrest across the world with a view to understanding where these events are most common and who is most likely to be involved. It also studies other political indicators with particular relevance to democratic systems of government: trust in government, voter turnout and support for democracy. The chapter then explores the contingent causes of discontent with reference to public attitude surveys from different regions. These shed light on citizens’ principal worries and frustrations as they relate to the state of the economy and the quality of public goods. It also analyses the extent to which citizens feel they have a say in how their country is run.

This chapter examines causes of discontent that operate at a deeper level than the grievances identified in Chapter 2. These relate to the functioning of society and its political system rather than to the state of the economy or the performance of a particular administration. The chapter starts by investigating the complex links between inequality and discontent then analyses social cohesion in different regions with reference to trends in civic engagement and inter-personal trust as well as the uneven evolution of values and outlooks within societies. Next, it assesses the diminishing capacity of political systems to mediate across increasingly fractured and unequal societies and examines the rise of populist movements in response. It concludes by demonstrating how emerging digital technologies have the potential to exacerbate social polarisation and are giving rise to new forms of political protest.

This chapter explains how developing countries can build back better from the COVID-19 pandemic through approaches that simultaneously improve development outcomes and strengthen social cohesion. It demonstrates that by harnessing the trust, networks and know-how that constitute social capital and by promoting broad-based participation, countries can escape the traps of low productivity, weak institutions and social vulnerability that not only constrain development but are also key factors behind discontent. The chapter explains that these approaches need to be held together by national development strategies and rely on more experimental approaches to public administration. It concludes by recognising the constraints such approaches will face in the post-pandemic world, notably the weakened state of public finances and higher inequality.

This chapter explores the international dimensions of discontent and assesses the capacity of global governance institutions to address the phenomenon. With reference to the COVID-19 pandemic and locust swarms, it demonstrates that discontent in a country is often worsened by shocks that originate outside its borders. The chapter also examines discontent at globalisation itself, as articulated by the Seattle Protests over two decades ago. It then charts the evolution of the multilateral system since the end of the Second World War to understand why global institutions today are struggling to address the causes of discontent, and it examines the constraints to international co-operation in the face of global threats, including the climate crisis. It concludes by examining ways in which the multilateral system needs to adapt to the profound challenges of the 21st century.