OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015
This edition of the Agricultural Outlook – the twenty-first OECD edition and the eleventh prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) – provides projections to 2024 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. The 2015 report provides a special focus on prospects and challenges for Brazilian agriculture.
The market projections not only cover OECD member countries (European Union as a region) but also FAO member countries, notably Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, People's Republic of China and South Africa.
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015 - © OECD 2015
A.3.1 | World trade projections, imports | ||||||||||||
A.3.1 | World trade projections, imports | ||||||||||||
| | | Average 2012-14est | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Wheat | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 145 666 | 150 908 | 150 274 | 153 325 | 155 992 | 157 589 | 159 628 | 160 864 | 162 188 | 163 244 | 164 576 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 32 163 | 31 629 | 30 839 | 31 191 | 31 088 | 31 075 | 30 561 | 30 367 | 29 814 | 29 540 | 29 019 |
| Developing countries | kt | 118 328 | 121 072 | 121 617 | 124 268 | 126 805 | 128 227 | 130 434 | 131 716 | 133 366 | 134 650 | 136 192 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 15 862 | 17 054 | 17 254 | 17 657 | 18 049 | 18 666 | 19 195 | 19 655 | 20 261 | 20 788 | 21 433 |
| Coarse grains | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 145 379 | 149 495 | 152 789 | 156 040 | 158 759 | 161 718 | 165 147 | 168 303 | 172 147 | 175 365 | 179 094 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 62 549 | 59 362 | 59 901 | 60 846 | 61 736 | 62 843 | 63 456 | 64 396 | 65 553 | 66 388 | 67 649 |
| Developing countries | kt | 104 705 | 114 910 | 118 346 | 120 883 | 123 252 | 125 441 | 128 797 | 131 454 | 134 751 | 137 576 | 141 052 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 2 425 | 3 062 | 3 263 | 3 315 | 3 175 | 3 350 | 3 558 | 3 758 | 4 119 | 4 387 | 4 621 |
| Rice | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 39 846 | 42 775 | 42 487 | 43 465 | 44 433 | 45 491 | 46 730 | 48 380 | 49 712 | 51 032 | 52 220 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 5 037 | 5 108 | 5 182 | 5 270 | 5 350 | 5 441 | 5 529 | 5 591 | 5 668 | 5 746 | 5 825 |
| Developing countries | kt | 34 768 | 37 686 | 37 347 | 38 285 | 39 222 | 40 246 | 41 450 | 43 082 | 44 391 | 45 685 | 46 849 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 8 286 | 9 006 | 9 007 | 9 362 | 9 816 | 10 285 | 10 888 | 11 703 | 12 702 | 13 644 | 14 582 |
| Oilseeds | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 127 255 | 138 326 | 141 967 | 144 127 | 145 784 | 147 634 | 150 180 | 152 025 | 154 215 | 155 759 | 157 356 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 35 395 | 36 153 | 36 766 | 36 490 | 36 357 | 36 410 | 36 534 | 36 599 | 36 793 | 36 776 | 36 840 |
| Developing countries | kt | 99 346 | 110 256 | 113 468 | 115 918 | 117 844 | 119 888 | 122 408 | 124 342 | 126 471 | 128 150 | 129 806 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 319 | 314 | 355 | 357 | 342 | 351 | 368 | 380 | 391 | 397 | 406 |
| Protein Meals | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 78 873 | 83 812 | 84 247 | 85 371 | 85 311 | 86 068 | 86 543 | 87 425 | 88 065 | 88 683 | 89 674 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 43 039 | 45 115 | 45 132 | 45 447 | 44 965 | 44 904 | 44 666 | 45 018 | 44 905 | 44 904 | 45 059 |
| Developing countries | kt | 41 559 | 45 115 | 45 474 | 46 388 | 46 993 | 47 939 | 48 760 | 49 405 | 50 235 | 50 981 | 51 944 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 766 | 883 | 915 | 982 | 1 029 | 1 072 | 1 116 | 1 150 | 1 199 | 1 244 | 1 292 |
| Vegetable Oils | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 68 264 | 70 263 | 71 688 | 73 191 | 74 440 | 75 572 | 76 915 | 78 266 | 79 417 | 80 694 | 81 806 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 18 310 | 18 485 | 18 389 | 18 439 | 18 493 | 18 402 | 18 350 | 18 151 | 17 937 | 17 847 | 17 649 |
| Developing countries | kt | 50 654 | 52 588 | 54 096 | 55 560 | 56 733 | 57 948 | 59 335 | 60 830 | 62 206 | 63 582 | 64 902 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 5 572 | 5 890 | 6 144 | 6 420 | 6 673 | 6 921 | 7 179 | 7 446 | 7 715 | 8 009 | 8 292 |
| Sugar | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 54 127 | 54 566 | 55 045 | 55 318 | 57 287 | 59 135 | 60 835 | 63 298 | 66 178 | 68 030 | 70 580 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 13 346 | 12 795 | 12 733 | 11 978 | 12 083 | 11 956 | 12 100 | 12 228 | 12 254 | 12 469 | 12 692 |
| Developing countries | kt | 38 802 | 40 120 | 40 804 | 41 762 | 43 643 | 45 561 | 46 990 | 49 289 | 52 115 | 53 651 | 55 852 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 7 578 | 7 328 | 7 590 | 8 353 | 8 698 | 9 127 | 9 281 | 9 596 | 10 300 | 11 004 | 11 544 |
| Beef 2 | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 8 382 | 9 099 | 9 096 | 9 303 | 9 517 | 9 765 | 9 966 | 10 131 | 10 303 | 10 457 | 10 592 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 3 400 | 3 715 | 3 693 | 3 726 | 3 730 | 3 792 | 3 844 | 3 874 | 3 897 | 3 897 | 3 898 |
| Developing countries | kt | 4 777 | 5 384 | 5 440 | 5 626 | 5 816 | 5 906 | 6 088 | 6 246 | 6 396 | 6 545 | 6 673 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 203 | 206 | 196 | 243 | 242 | 261 | 281 | 299 | 317 | 335 | 353 |
| Pigmeat 2 | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 6 742 | 6 680 | 6 921 | 6 945 | 7 022 | 7 128 | 7 294 | 7 430 | 7 646 | 7 876 | 8 139 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 3 184 | 3 388 | 3 519 | 3 519 | 3 550 | 3 577 | 3 632 | 3 651 | 3 664 | 3 675 | 3 679 |
| Developing countries | kt | 3 457 | 3 775 | 4 011 | 4 038 | 4 130 | 4 232 | 4 359 | 4 507 | 4 711 | 4 912 | 5 146 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 220 | 276 | 311 | 344 | 378 | 413 | 451 | 490 | 534 | 580 | 629 |
| Poultry | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 12 119 | 12 371 | 12 698 | 13 001 | 13 337 | 13 791 | 14 247 | 14 711 | 15 163 | 15 580 | 16 010 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 2 913 | 2 830 | 2 842 | 2 815 | 2 816 | 2 844 | 2 856 | 2 866 | 2 849 | 2 834 | 2 805 |
| Developing countries | kt | 9 064 | 9 552 | 9 835 | 10 197 | 10 562 | 10 975 | 11 370 | 11 792 | 12 207 | 12 607 | 13 013 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 1 102 | 1 236 | 1 336 | 1 422 | 1 513 | 1 611 | 1 722 | 1 842 | 1 965 | 2 088 | 2 213 |
| Butter | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 841 | 900 | 933 | 946 | 968 | 987 | 1 000 | 1 011 | 1 021 | 1 032 | 1 041 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 157 | 180 | 174 | 178 | 181 | 186 | 182 | 179 | 175 | 172 | 168 |
| Developing countries | kt | 540 | 599 | 619 | 633 | 653 | 669 | 687 | 703 | 719 | 734 | 748 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| Cheese | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 2 156 | 2 201 | 2 307 | 2 343 | 2 379 | 2 424 | 2 480 | 2 537 | 2 589 | 2 646 | 2 706 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 834 | 838 | 848 | 858 | 864 | 869 | 881 | 890 | 899 | 909 | 917 |
| Developing countries | kt | 1 055 | 1 143 | 1 216 | 1 256 | 1 290 | 1 332 | 1 386 | 1 440 | 1 490 | 1 543 | 1 598 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 42 | 27 | 55 | 66 | 69 | 77 | 96 | 112 | 125 | 137 | 150 |
| Whole milk powder | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 2 321 | 2 529 | 2 577 | 2 638 | 2 712 | 2 788 | 2 847 | 2 921 | 2 986 | 3 058 | 3 125 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 78 | 89 | 94 | 96 | 101 | 104 | 108 | 111 | 114 | 116 | 119 |
| Developing countries | kt | 2 263 | 2 465 | 2 513 | 2 575 | 2 649 | 2 725 | 2 783 | 2 858 | 2 923 | 2 995 | 3 063 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 157 | 168 | 179 | 189 | 200 | 210 | 220 | 231 | 242 | 253 | 264 |
| Skim milk powder | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 1 947 | 2 122 | 2 164 | 2 228 | 2 304 | 2 374 | 2 440 | 2 502 | 2 571 | 2 636 | 2 703 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 382 | 404 | 406 | 411 | 415 | 420 | 424 | 427 | 431 | 433 | 436 |
| Developing countries | kt | 1 801 | 1 975 | 2 017 | 2 078 | 2 152 | 2 220 | 2 282 | 2 343 | 2 410 | 2 474 | 2 539 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 118 | 132 | 141 | 148 | 154 | 161 | 168 | 176 | 183 | 190 | 198 |
| Fish | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 37 613 | 38 665 | 38 993 | 39 696 | 40 376 | 41 085 | 41 801 | 42 437 | 43 270 | 44 229 | 45 080 |
| OECD | kt | 20 410 | 21 035 | 21 014 | 21 341 | 21 621 | 21 901 | 22 158 | 22 452 | 22 739 | 23 199 | 23 557 |
| Developing countries | kt | 16 759 | 17 376 | 17 822 | 18 071 | 18 413 | 18 794 | 19 210 | 19 598 | 20 045 | 20 547 | 21 027 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 970 | 961 | 957 | 974 | 989 | 1 001 | 1 010 | 1 010 | 1 020 | 1 031 | 1 039 |
| Fishmeal | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 2 886 | 2 624 | 2 489 | 2 529 | 2 696 | 2 747 | 2 797 | 2 800 | 2 572 | 2 815 | 2 820 |
| OECD | kt | 1 173 | 1 007 | 941 | 968 | 1 009 | 1 001 | 991 | 979 | 879 | 972 | 990 |
| Developing countries | kt | 1 830 | 1 747 | 1 684 | 1 688 | 1 822 | 1 889 | 1 958 | 1 983 | 1 844 | 2 013 | 2 010 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 31 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 34 | 34 | 34 |
| Fish oil | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 790 | 809 | 758 | 735 | 792 | 799 | 796 | 796 | 722 | 789 | 787 |
| OECD | kt | 621 | 655 | 629 | 570 | 627 | 628 | 623 | 642 | 546 | 607 | 601 |
| Developing countries | kt | 273 | 257 | 230 | 268 | 278 | 286 | 290 | 268 | 286 | 301 | 305 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Cotton | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 8 761 | 8 038 | 8 414 | 8 598 | 8 811 | 9 128 | 9 399 | 9 687 | 9 988 | 10 271 | 10 539 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 1 640 | 1 694 | 1 648 | 1 627 | 1 597 | 1 557 | 1 545 | 1 540 | 1 528 | 1 515 | 1 501 |
| Developing countries | kt | 8 412 | 7 676 | 8 082 | 8 264 | 8 487 | 8 810 | 9 085 | 9 378 | 9 690 | 9 981 | 10 255 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 874 | 1 044 | 1 091 | 1 128 | 1 166 | 1 195 | 1 243 | 1 304 | 1 366 | 1 430 | 1 492 |
Note: The values do not add up to world trade due to double counting of certains countries and statistical differences (i.e. LDC are already included in the Developing countries aggregate). Average 2012-14est: Data for 2014 are estimated. | |||||||||||||
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries. | |||||||||||||
Excludes trade of live animals. | |||||||||||||
Source: OECD/FAO (2015), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en |