OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015
This edition of the Agricultural Outlook – the twenty-first OECD edition and the eleventh prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) – provides projections to 2024 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. The 2015 report provides a special focus on prospects and challenges for Brazilian agriculture.
The market projections not only cover OECD member countries (European Union as a region) but also FAO member countries, notably Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, People's Republic of China and South Africa.
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015 - © OECD 2015
A.3.2 | World trade projections, exports | ||||||||||||
A.3.2 | World trade projections, exports | ||||||||||||
| | | Average 2012-14est | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Wheat | ||||||||||||
| OECD 1 | kt | 97 535 | 97 062 | 93 100 | 94 070 | 95 233 | 96 224 | 97 874 | 98 640 | 99 299 | 100 168 | 101 397 |
| Developing countries | kt | 21 179 | 23 188 | 25 206 | 26 398 | 26 772 | 26 666 | 26 551 | 26 490 | 26 486 | 26 013 | 25 627 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 138 | 79 | 77 | 74 | 71 | 69 | 66 | 64 | 62 | 60 | 58 |
| Coarse grains | ||||||||||||
| OECD 1 | kt | 66 087 | 71 753 | 73 166 | 73 801 | 74 348 | 75 659 | 77 386 | 78 605 | 80 474 | 82 124 | 84 216 |
| Developing countries | kt | 63 940 | 53 659 | 54 506 | 56 293 | 57 517 | 58 636 | 59 751 | 61 157 | 62 633 | 63 723 | 64 881 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 5 790 | 4 722 | 4 490 | 4 483 | 4 434 | 4 487 | 4 290 | 4 107 | 3 859 | 3 576 | 3 310 |
| Rice | ||||||||||||
| OECD 1 | kt | 3 977 | 4 226 | 4 317 | 4 357 | 4 405 | 4 436 | 4 482 | 4 593 | 4 660 | 4 721 | 4 782 |
| Developing countries | kt | 35 823 | 38 227 | 37 842 | 38 768 | 39 674 | 40 688 | 41 866 | 43 395 | 44 647 | 45 897 | 47 017 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 1 945 | 2 576 | 3 026 | 3 205 | 3 342 | 3 510 | 3 725 | 4 031 | 4 331 | 4 557 | 4 749 |
| Oilseeds | ||||||||||||
| OECD 1 | kt | 58 681 | 66 953 | 67 450 | 67 590 | 66 999 | 66 364 | 67 495 | 68 200 | 68 885 | 69 602 | 70 273 |
| Developing countries | kt | 57 091 | 66 068 | 69 184 | 71 042 | 72 944 | 75 335 | 76 751 | 77 831 | 79 284 | 80 005 | 80 863 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 92 | 95 | 84 | 89 | 93 | 91 | 90 | 90 | 89 | 89 | 88 |
| Protein Meals | ||||||||||||
| OECD 1 | kt | 15 689 | 15 919 | 16 236 | 16 608 | 17 151 | 17 642 | 18 067 | 18 546 | 18 865 | 19 232 | 19 461 |
| Developing countries | kt | 59 128 | 61 865 | 61 849 | 62 658 | 62 001 | 62 204 | 62 144 | 62 493 | 62 743 | 62 932 | 63 643 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 218 | 290 | 261 | 245 | 238 | 236 | 229 | 225 | 211 | 201 | 187 |
| Vegetable Oils | ||||||||||||
| OECD 1 | kt | 6 390 | 5 989 | 6 203 | 6 490 | 6 486 | 6 668 | 6 752 | 7 019 | 7 299 | 7 512 | 7 698 |
| Developing countries | kt | 58 073 | 58 492 | 59 697 | 60 909 | 62 211 | 63 059 | 64 226 | 65 234 | 66 014 | 67 015 | 67 841 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 222 | 217 | 208 | 200 | 193 | 187 | 181 | 175 | 169 | 164 | 158 |
| Sugar | ||||||||||||
| OECD 1 | kt | 7 738 | 7 993 | 8 287 | 8 201 | 8 546 | 8 777 | 8 537 | 8 656 | 8 844 | 8 844 | 8 957 |
| Developing countries | kt | 51 069 | 49 701 | 49 822 | 50 672 | 52 404 | 54 016 | 55 747 | 58 015 | 60 716 | 62 708 | 65 248 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 1 819 | 1 714 | 1 553 | 1 461 | 1 757 | 1 825 | 1 905 | 2 165 | 2 394 | 2 623 | 2 942 |
| Beef 2 | ||||||||||||
| OECD 1 | kt | 3 974 | 3 972 | 3 921 | 3 919 | 3 924 | 3 973 | 4 033 | 4 102 | 4 170 | 4 218 | 4 255 |
| Developing countries | kt | 4 772 | 5 424 | 5 611 | 5 794 | 6 006 | 6 212 | 6 345 | 6 432 | 6 529 | 6 623 | 6 711 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Pigmeat 2 | ||||||||||||
| OECD 1 | kt | 6 025 | 5 659 | 5 840 | 5 837 | 5 941 | 6 057 | 6 138 | 6 268 | 6 466 | 6 675 | 6 910 |
| Developing countries | kt | 1 363 | 1 479 | 1 519 | 1 537 | 1 493 | 1 481 | 1 561 | 1 563 | 1 572 | 1 585 | 1 604 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Poultry | ||||||||||||
| OECD 1 | kt | 5 733 | 5 663 | 5 897 | 5 969 | 6 251 | 6 530 | 6 741 | 6 988 | 7 193 | 7 367 | 7 474 |
| Developing countries | kt | 7 119 | 7 656 | 7 689 | 7 861 | 7 873 | 8 016 | 8 223 | 8 401 | 8 608 | 8 809 | 9 088 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Butter | ||||||||||||
| OECD 1 | kt | 719 | 754 | 796 | 817 | 841 | 862 | 878 | 892 | 905 | 917 | 926 |
| Developing countries | kt | 105 | 90 | 87 | 82 | 82 | 80 | 78 | 76 | 74 | 73 | 73 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Cheese | ||||||||||||
| OECD 1 | kt | 1 649 | 1 771 | 1 869 | 1 906 | 1 947 | 1 996 | 2 059 | 2 121 | 2 176 | 2 235 | 2 298 |
| Developing countries | kt | 578 | 606 | 570 | 541 | 522 | 512 | 495 | 482 | 472 | 467 | 462 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Whole milk powder | ||||||||||||
| OECD 1 | kt | 1 713 | 1 939 | 2 007 | 2 069 | 2 137 | 2 208 | 2 265 | 2 330 | 2 391 | 2 450 | 2 509 |
| Developing countries | kt | 590 | 566 | 549 | 547 | 553 | 556 | 557 | 564 | 567 | 580 | 587 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 13 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| Skim milk powder | ||||||||||||
| OECD 1 | kt | 1 614 | 1 786 | 1 835 | 1 901 | 1 977 | 2 057 | 2 127 | 2 195 | 2 270 | 2 335 | 2 402 |
| Developing countries | kt | 258 | 247 | 239 | 240 | 239 | 230 | 223 | 216 | 210 | 210 | 214 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Fish | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 12 956 | 13 281 | 13 667 | 13 919 | 14 225 | 14 530 | 14 822 | 15 064 | 15 316 | 15 519 | 15 727 |
| Developing countries | kt | 25 217 | 25 518 | 25 309 | 25 746 | 26 066 | 26 437 | 26 810 | 27 119 | 27 651 | 28 336 | 28 902 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 1 334 | 1 362 | 1 399 | 1 353 | 1 319 | 1 305 | 1 293 | 1 311 | 1 290 | 1 265 | 1 247 |
| Fishmeal | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 977 | 1 085 | 1 067 | 1 017 | 1 029 | 1 038 | 1 040 | 1 060 | 1 065 | 1 064 | 1 071 |
| Developing countries | kt | 2 041 | 1 829 | 1 695 | 1 738 | 1 901 | 1 945 | 1 988 | 1 983 | 1 748 | 1 989 | 1 986 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 70 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 72 |
| Fish oil | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 418 | 488 | 474 | 447 | 455 | 458 | 460 | 478 | 460 | 469 | 471 |
| Developing countries | kt | 479 | 449 | 402 | 397 | 447 | 451 | 445 | 433 | 372 | 430 | 426 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 14 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Biofuel 3 | ||||||||||||
| Ethanol World Trade | mln L | 5 667 | 5 722 | 5 426 | 4 857 | 5 617 | 5 916 | 5 346 | 5 308 | 5 091 | 4 747 | 4 300 |
| Biodiesel World Trade | mln L | 1 795 | 1 576 | 1 602 | 1 629 | 1 651 | 1 654 | 1 671 | 1 692 | 1 683 | 1 696 | 1 700 |
| Cotton | ||||||||||||
| OECD 1 | kt | 3 837 | 3 340 | 3 461 | 3 498 | 3 518 | 3 581 | 3 633 | 3 729 | 3 844 | 3 957 | 4 051 |
| Developing countries | kt | 4 046 | 3 914 | 4 252 | 4 419 | 4 606 | 4 834 | 5 031 | 5 216 | 5 405 | 5 582 | 5 760 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 885 | 917 | 918 | 931 | 950 | 974 | 1 000 | 1 022 | 1 043 | 1 064 | 1 086 |
Note: Average 2012-14est: Data for 2014 are estimated. | |||||||||||||
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries. | |||||||||||||
Excludes trade of live animals. | |||||||||||||
Sum of all positive net trade positions. | |||||||||||||
Source: OECD/FAO (2015), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en |