Browse by: "2023"

In recent years, provision of relevant up-skilling and re-skilling opportunities for adults has become a necessity due to global megatrends affecting labour markets. As a result, countries are looking to strengthen these opportunities throughout the life course. The successful deployment of these initiatives requires a coherent set of policies, with quality assurance being critically important. This paper provides an overview of quality assurance mechanisms from the perspective of the 38 OECD member countries. It proposes a framework to characterise and compare the governance, processes and outcomes of these mechanisms. The paper's contribution is to facilitate understanding of quality assurance across OECD countries, presenting a visual cross-country mapping that classifies existing mechanisms.

This Education Spotlight presents key lessons and inspiring examples of policy and practice to inform collaboration between secondary education and higher education. The Spotlight was prepared by the OECD Higher Education Policy Team as part of the Education and Innovation Practice Community (EIPC), an action of the European Union’s New European Innovation Agenda, flagship 4 on “Fostering, attracting and retaining deep tech talent”. EIPC seeks to bring together peers from policy and practice to advance understanding of the competencies that can trigger and shape innovation for the digital and green transitions, and the mechanisms through which higher education can contribute to their development in secondary education (Strand 1), higher education (Strand 2), and adult upskilling and reskilling (Strand 3).

This paper provides a critical review of public sector innovation measurement approaches and related gaps. It explores alternative approaches to measure public sector innovation measurement which respond to different use cases, and paves the way for operationalising a measurement framework for public sector innovation. The paper proposes creating a continuous stocktake of public sector innovation measurement activities in Member countries, improving existing frameworks or creating new frameworks to guide public sector innovation measurement more systematically at country level, and identifying indicators that would be most useful for cross-country comparability.

Understanding current levels of financial literacy and needs is key for the effective development of financial literacy strategies and programmes. This report presents the results of an international survey of financial literacy levels among adults. A total of 39 countries and economies, of which 20 are OECD member countries, participated in this third coordinated measurement exercise using the globally recognized OECD/INFE 2022 Toolkit for Measuring Financial Literacy and Financial Inclusion to measure financial literacy levels among their adult populations. Results provide information about financial literacy levels and cover aspects of financial knowledge, financial behaviour and financial attitudes. In addition, the report provides information on financial inclusion, digital financial literacy levels and levels of financial well-being among adults in the participating countries and economies.

This paper describes the latest update of the OECD’s long-term scenarios, which are done every 2-3 years to quantify some of the most important long-term macroeconomic trends and policy challenges facing the global economy. For the first time, this update incorporates the effect of the low-carbon energy transition. The study first presents a baseline projection that acts as a business-as-usual scenario against which the economic effects of the transition can be gauged. Next, it outlines extensions to the OECD global long-term model (LTM) to consider energy use and associated CO2 emissions and describes an alternative stylised scenario in which OECD and non-OECD G20 countries successfully transition to low-carbon energy in a way broadly consistent with a net-zero target for greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. These extensions rely on a variety of sources, but most crucially on simulations of CO2 mitigation costs with the OECD’s ENV-Linkages model. Finally, the model’s extensions are used to explore some fiscal implications of the energy transition, in particular how the negative economic effects of carbon mitigation could be alleviated by fiscal or other structural reforms.

This paper explores the opportunities and challenges linked to a possible use of deliberative democracy processes in Lebanon. It looks at the viability and feasibility of such initiatives, which are not prevalent in the country, by identifying the main impediments to their initiation and implementation, the different formats they could take, and the expected impact. It discusses how deliberative democracy could complement and diversify the democratic tools available to Lebanese actors and thus strengthen citizens’ ability to participate in public life. The aim of the paper is to encourage an initial discussion on this topic, raise awareness about its potential to contribute to democratic governance and respond to the demand of Lebanese actors interested in pursuing deliberative democracy efforts.

Heavy diesel trucks emit nearly three-quarters of all CO2 from freight transport. They are also among the most difficult vehicle types to power with sustainable fuels. This report reviews which emerging technologies show the most promise to drastically cut road freight emissions. It also proposes an approach for governments to decide which technologies deserve support – and thus to speed up the urgent transition to clean trucking.

This paper provides novel evidence on the regional impact of international migration on native employment and wages in Australia, using unique administrative individual-level panel data covering all residents from 2011 to 2018. Employing a differences-in-differences estimation strategy and a well-established shift-share instrumental variable (IV) approach based on census data from 1981, the study addresses potential endogeneity concerns related to migrant settlement patterns. The analysis reveals a positive impact of migration on native employment across all skill levels, ages, and genders, while wages remain unaffected. Examining the drivers of the employment effect shows that the arrival of migrants leads to a substantial increase of newly employed natives in the region and a decrease in the number of previously employed natives, with the former outweighing the latter. Most of the dynamic results from geographic mobility rather than labour market transition.

Ce document explore la dynamique d'innovation des régions ultrapériphériques de l'UE (RUP de l'UE) en s’appuyant sur des données de brevets. Il souligne le potentiel de collaboration internationale avec un large éventail de partenaires et recommande de mobiliser les ressources et les stratégies fournies par l'UE pour renforcer la recherche et l'innovation dans le secteur privé, améliorer l'impact des centres de recherche publics et des universités et favoriser la coopération intrarégionale. Il appelle également à renforcer les liens avec les pays africains, la région Amérique latine et Caraïbes, ainsi que les petits États insulaires en développement (PEID), afin d'encourager les collaborations fondées sur l'innovation, en particulier dans les domaines de l'agriculture durable, des énergies renouvelables et de l'économie des océans. Ce document s’inscrit dans le cadre du projet conjoint UE-OCDE sur les régions ultrapériphériques du monde.

This paper investigates the link between gender diversity in senior management and firm-level productivity. For this purpose, it constructs a novel cross-country dataset with information on firms’ senior management group and other firm characteristics, covering both publicly listed and unlisted firms in manufacturing and non-financial market services across nine OECD countries. The main result from the analysis is that productivity gains from increasing gender diversity in senior management are highest among firms with low initial diversity. Increasing the female share to the sample average of 20% in firms with initially lower shares would increase aggregate productivity by around 0.6%. This suggests that improving women’s access to senior management positions matters not only for equity but could yield significant productivity gains.

This adverse outcome pathway links androgen receptor agonism in teleost fish during gonadogenesis to male-biased sexual differentiation and consequently, reduced population growth rate. Sex determination in teleost fishes is highly plastic; it can be genetically or environmentally influenced. Species with environmentally-based sex determination in particular can be very sensitive to exogenous chemicals during the period of differentiation. Exogenous hormones are of ecological concern because they have the potential to alter gonad development and sex differentiation. This AOP is referred to as AOP 376 in the Collaborative Adverse Outcome Pathway Wiki (AOP-Wiki).

This paper describes an algorithm, “DoomBot”, which selects parsimonious models to predict downturns over different quarterly horizons covering the ensuing two years for 20 OECD countries. The models are country- and horizon-specific and are automatically updated as the estimation sample period is extended, so facilitating out-of-sample evaluation of the algorithm. A limited combination of explanatory variables is chosen from a much larger pool of potential variables that include those that have been most useful in predicting downturns in previous OECD work. The most frequently selected variables are financial variables, especially those relating to credit and house prices, but also include equity prices and various measures of interest rates (such as the slope of the yield curve). Business cycle variables -- survey measure of capacity utilisation, industrial production, GDP and unemployment -- are also selected, but more frequently at very short horizons. The variables selected do not just relate to the domestic economy of the country being considered, but also international aggregates, consistent with findings from previous OECD work. The in-sample fit of the models is very good on standard performance metrics, although the out-of-sample performance is less impressive. The models do, however, provide a clear out-of-sample early warning of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), especially when considered collectively, although they do generate ‘false alarms’ just ahead of the crisis. The models are less good at predicting the euro area crisis out-of-sample, but it is clear from the evolution of the choice of variables that the algorithm learns from this episode, for example through the more frequent selection of a variable measuring euro area sovereign bond spreads. The latest out-of-sample predictions made in mid-2023, suggest the probability of a downturn is at its greatest and most widespread since the GFC, with the largest contributions to such risks coming from house prices, interest rate developments (as measured by the slope of the yield curve and the rapidity of the change in short rates) and oil prices. On the other hand, warning signals from business cycle variables and equity prices, which are often good downturn predictors at short horizons, are conspicuously absent.

Croatia’s labour market has made important progress over the past decade. Employment rates are rising, reducing the gap with OECD countries, and poverty has fallen. While important weaknesses remain, many dimensions of equity and working conditions are similar to OECD countries. Continuing this progress is essential for Croatia’s incomes and well-being to converge with OECD countries, to counter accelerating population ageing and to make the most of emerging opportunities, including from digitalisation and the green economy transition. For employers, filling increasingly advanced skill needs is a growing obstacle. Relatively few of the young and older adults are in work – contributing to weakening skills, lower incomes and higher poverty risks. Addressing these challenges will require dramatically expanding participation in re-skilling and adult education programmes, and raising the workforce’s flexibility, for example by strengthening active labour market policies, improving the housing market’s dynamism and making the most of immigrants’ and returned emigrants’ skills. This Working Paper relates to the 2023 OECD Economic Survey of Croatia.

Raising productivity growth is central to closing the gap with the incomes and well-being enjoyed in many OECD countries. Croatia has internationally competitive firms, and a dynamic economy with many young and potentially productive firms. However, overall performance has been limited by the presence of many less productive firms and more productive firms that often fail to grow. This likely reflects a business environment that weakens competitive pressures and makes investments more costly and risky. Reducing the burdens of lengthy and unpredictable regulatory procedures, resolving legal disputes faster with a more efficient judicial system, and improving public sector integrity, will be key for boosting productivity growth. Developing public equity markets and expanding R&D support would improve access to finance for young and innovative firms. State-owned enterprises play a comparatively large role in Croatia’s economy but tend to underperform financially and in delivering goods and services. Improving their governance, by strengthening the state’s oversight and governance arrangements, can improve outcomes. This Working Paper relates to the 2023 OECD Economic Survey of Croatia.

The Turkish economy grew strongly over the past two decades and created many jobs. However, given its young and growing workforce, Türkiye needs to ramp up efforts to achieve high-quality formal job creation. A sizeable share of the workforce, mostly female workers, does not actively participate in the labour market. While informality has decreased significantly, it is still widespread and entrenches productivity differences across firms. Rigid labour market rules, particularly the high severance pay but also minimum wages, impede formal job creation. More flexible labour markets should be part of a comprehensive reform programme that shifts job loss protection to a broader-based unemployment insurance scheme, supported by well-designed activation policies. While educational attainment has risen impressively, a growing number of vacancies, significant skill mismatches and a low level of adult skills highlight the need to address the quality of education and to improve on the matching of talent to jobs.

This adverse outcome pathway links inhibition of aromatase activity in teleost fish during gonadogenesis to increased differentiation to testis resulting in a male-biased sex ratio in the population, and ultimately, reduced population sustainability. Most gonochoristic fish species develop either as males or females and do not change sex throughout their life span. However, in species where sexual differentiation is controlled at least to some degree by environmental factors, there can be a window of development during gonadal differentiation that is sensitive to a variety of exogenous conditions. During this window, endocrine active chemicals, aromatase inhibitors in particular, have the potential to alter gonad development and sex differentiation. This AOP is referred to as AOP 346 in the Collaborative Adverse Outcome Pathway Wiki (AOP-Wiki).