1887

OECD Economics Department Working Papers

Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.

The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.

English, French

Quantifying the effect of policies to promote educational performance on macroeconomic productivity

This paper evaluates the link between educational policies and i) student performance and ii) macroeconomic measures of productivity. The analysis has two stages. First, using the 2015 and 2018 PISA databases, it quantifies the relationship between student test scores and the characteristics of students taking the tests, their school environment and national educational systems. Second, assuming that these relationships reflect the effect of different characteristics/policies on student test performance, the second stage converts the latter into an estimated effect on macroeconomic measures of productivity using a new measure of human capital as an intermediary variable. This new measure of human capital, devised in previous OECD work, combines student test scores and mean years of schooling with estimated elasticities that suggest the former is more important. The analysis shows a positive association between spending on education and student test scores, but only for levels of student expenditure below the OECD median, suggesting scope for currently low-spending countries to raise student performance with potential gains to long-run productivity. Boosting participation in early childhood education as well as improving teacher quality is found to generate large aggregate productivity gains. There are significant, but smaller, macroeconomic gains for many countries from limiting grade repetition and ability grouping across all subjects as well as increasing the accountability of schools. Finally, the results provide evidence for income inequality having a major influence on productivity through a human capital channel.

English

Keywords: OECD, human capital, student test scores, PISA, productivity, education policies
JEL: I26: Health, Education, and Welfare / Education and Research Institutions / Returns to Education; I20: Health, Education, and Welfare / Education and Research Institutions / Education and Research Institutions: General; I28: Health, Education, and Welfare / Education and Research Institutions / Education: Government Policy; E24: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy / Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity; I25: Health, Education, and Welfare / Education and Research Institutions / Education and Economic Development
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